Gold begins the week on pretty firm footing, having retraced much of Friday's intraday retreat. The dominant story in the market continues to be the strong physical demand for gold that emerged as a result of the mid-month sell-off in the paper market.
A weaker dollar is helping to underpin the gold market. The greenback has been pressured by a stronger euro after Italy successfully formed a new government over the weekend. The ECB meets this week and a recent worsening of the economic data have increased the likelihood of a 25bp rate cut.
The Bank of Japan said reiterated its plan on Friday to "conduct money market operations so that the monetary base will increase at an annual pace of about 60-70 trillion yen." However, the market seems to have been hoping for more than the already stated plan to double the monetary base in two-years. The yen rallied, leaving the important 100.00 level against the dollar well protected.
The Fed also meets this week and will announce policy on Wednesday. With the economy continuing to languish, the FOMC is widely expected to hold rates steady near 0% and continue buying $85 bln a month in assets. In light of the recent soft data and hints of deflationary pressures, talk of phased withdrawals of accommodations has diminished in recent weeks.
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